{"id":44678,"date":"2025-05-07T18:20:11","date_gmt":"2025-05-07T22:20:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/?p=44678"},"modified":"2025-08-08T19:24:08","modified_gmt":"2025-08-08T23:24:08","slug":"focus-from-overconfidence-to-realism-overcoming-bias-in-early-cost-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/focus-from-overconfidence-to-realism-overcoming-bias-in-early-cost-forecasting\/","title":{"rendered":"From Overconfidence to Realism: Overcoming Bias in Early Cost Forecasting"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"44678\" class=\"elementor elementor-44678\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4eccb85 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"4eccb85\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c05175 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-child\" data-id=\"8c05175\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9a0788b elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"9a0788b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h6 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><a href=\"\/blog\">Focus: SPA Perspectives<\/a><\/h6>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6aca2af e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-child\" data-id=\"6aca2af\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-abdbaab elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"abdbaab\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tCategories: <a href=\"\/blog-capabilities\">Capabilities<\/a>\u00a0 |\u00a0 <a href=\"\/blog-fellows\">SPA Fellows<\/a>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-18d5caa e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"18d5caa\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5f1a50c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-title elementor-page-title elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"5f1a50c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-title.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">From Overconfidence to Realism: Overcoming Bias in Early Cost Forecasting<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6c24eaa e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"6c24eaa\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-981c12b e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-child\" data-id=\"981c12b\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-968f102 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"968f102\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/blog\/authors\/christina-snyder\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"200\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/CS.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-44684\" alt=\"Christina Snyder, SPA Fellow for Cost Estimation and Analysis and ICEAA President\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/CS.png 200w, https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/CS-150x150.png 150w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-98cfdef e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-child\" data-id=\"98cfdef\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fc67b43 elementor-widget-mobile__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"fc67b43\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Author: <a href=\"\/blog\/authors\/christina-snyder\"><em>Christina Snyder<\/em><\/a>, SPA Fellow for Cost Estimation and Analysis and ICEAA President<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-dca79ec e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"dca79ec\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7993998 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-child\" data-id=\"7993998\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b72b577 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"b72b577\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/blog\/authors\/pat-malone\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"200\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/PM.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-44685\" alt=\"Pat Malone, SPA Cost Analyst - Principal Team Lead\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/PM.png 200w, https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/PM-150x150.png 150w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6ca20f6 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-child\" data-id=\"6ca20f6\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9c475ca elementor-widget-mobile__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"9c475ca\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Author: <a href=\"\/blog\/authors\/pat-malone\"><em>Pat Malone<\/em><\/a>, Principal, Systems Planning &amp; Analysis<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5d0d089 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"5d0d089\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6c88c75 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-post-info\" data-id=\"6c88c75\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"post-info.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-inline-items elementor-icon-list-items elementor-post-info\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-repeater-item-09fc93d elementor-inline-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text elementor-post-info__item elementor-post-info__item--type-custom\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tAlexandria, VA | May 7, 2025\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-77e8f9c e-con-full elementor-hidden-desktop elementor-hidden-tablet elementor-hidden-mobile e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no elementor-invisible e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"77e8f9c\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;,&quot;animation&quot;:&quot;slideInUp&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5625a80 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"5625a80\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span style=\"color: #f3f3f3;\">Pat and Christina will be presenting on Mitigating Bias in Cost Estimation at the ICEAA Professional Development &amp; Training Workshop<\/span>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ca292cf elementor-widget elementor-widget-leroux_core_button\" data-id=\"ca292cf\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"leroux_core_button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"qodef-shortcode qodef-m  qodef-button qodef-layout--filled   qodef-html--link\" href=\"\/iceaa25\" target=\"_self\"  >\n    <span class=\"qodef-m-text\">Learn More<\/span>\n    <span class=\"qodef-m-arrow\"><svg class=\"qodef-svg--button-arrow\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10\" height=\"10\" viewBox=\"0 0 9.8 9.8\"><g><path d=\"m.4 9.4 9-9\"\/><path d=\"M.4.5h8.9\"\/><path d=\"M9.3 9.4V.5\"\/><\/g><g><path d=\"m.4 9.4 9-9\"\/><path d=\"M.4.5h8.9\"\/><path d=\"M9.3 9.4V.5\"\/><\/g><\/svg><\/span>\n<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ef8eee6 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"ef8eee6\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;,&quot;animation&quot;:&quot;none&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d5fe449 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"d5fe449\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><em>In March 2025, Systems Planning &amp; Analysis (SPA) experts Patrick Malone and Christina Snyder, ICEAA Board President and <a href=\"\/fellows\/christina-snyder\">SPA\u2019s Fellow for Cost Estimation and Analysis<\/a>, along with clinical psychologist Benjamin Snyder, PhD, presented groundbreaking insights at the IEEE Aerospace Conference in Big Sky, Montana, in their presentation \u201cEvaluating and Minimizing Cost Estimating Bias Early in Program Development.\u201d This article is based on their presentation and accompanying abstract.<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-9184ff2 elementor-section-full_width elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default qodef-elementor-content-no\" data-id=\"9184ff2\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;animation&quot;:&quot;none&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-no\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-e06b687 qodef-sticky-column--no\" data-id=\"e06b687\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-29eab8b elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"29eab8b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNavigating the complex landscape of program cost estimation requires confronting hidden biases that threaten budgets, timelines, and ultimately mission success. Accurate cost estimating is critical for defense programs aiming to deliver on time, within budget, and with the capabilities needed for today\u2019s warfighter. Yet, cost estimation\u2014especially early in the acquisition process\u2014is often undermined by inherent biases that lead to budget overruns and delayed fielding. Understanding these biases and proactively addressing them significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of cost forecasts.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3afcb01 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"3afcb01\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8eef670 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-child\" data-id=\"8eef670\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-06c31c2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"06c31c2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe Challenge of Early Cost Estimating\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fe679c9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"fe679c9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tCreating accurate cost estimates at the early stages of program development is particularly problematic because mission requirements continually evolve, technological paths remain unclear, and stakeholder pressures intensify. Frequently, initial estimates reflect a mix of over-optimism, unrealistic goals, and incomplete assessments of technology maturity and program risks.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-09535c7 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"09535c7\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b54fe3b e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-child\" data-id=\"b54fe3b\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5871b4c elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"5871b4c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>A notable example is the historical occurrence of significant cost overruns in Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs), as exemplified by recurring <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dau.edu\/glossary\/nunn-mccurdy-breach\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nunn-McCurdy breaches<\/a>. Despite initiatives like <a href=\"https:\/\/aaf.dau.edu\/aaf\/aaf-pathways\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Middle Tier Acquisitions<\/a> (MTAs), designed to streamline processes and reduce risk, the underlying issue of cost growth persists. Biases\u2014intentional or not\u2014continue to infiltrate estimations, negatively impacting resource allocation and strategic decision-making.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1b64921 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-child\" data-id=\"1b64921\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cf52816 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"cf52816\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"980\" height=\"580\" src=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Major-Acquisition-and-AAFP-new-starts-with-Nun-McCurdy-breaches-overlay.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-44686\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Major-Acquisition-and-AAFP-new-starts-with-Nun-McCurdy-breaches-overlay.png 980w, https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Major-Acquisition-and-AAFP-new-starts-with-Nun-McCurdy-breaches-overlay-300x178.png 300w, https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Major-Acquisition-and-AAFP-new-starts-with-Nun-McCurdy-breaches-overlay-768x455.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 980px) 100vw, 980px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">Figure 1. Major Acquisition and AAFP new starts with Nun-McCurdy breaches overlay<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ecd0cfe e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"ecd0cfe\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d58980e e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-child\" data-id=\"d58980e\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0ce8bc6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0ce8bc6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWhy Early Cost Estimating is Difficult\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b2cc7ed elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"b2cc7ed\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tEarly-stage cost estimates present numerous challenges primarily due to the dynamic nature of program requirements and uncertainty in the technology and implementation pathways. Stakeholders must frequently estimate costs based on limited or incomplete information about system requirements, technological maturity, and eventual mission environments. Additionally, budget constraints, external pressures from stakeholders, and internal organizational dynamics often compound these difficulties, resulting in estimates that can skew significantly from eventual reality.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8619066 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"8619066\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-82a1f90 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-child\" data-id=\"82a1f90\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-989ecf3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"989ecf3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tCommon Sources of Bias in Cost Estimation\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-94c9211 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"94c9211\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tOur research identifies several prevalent biases affecting cost estimates:\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4803773 elementor-align-left elementor-icon-list--layout-traditional elementor-list-item-link-full_width elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon-list\" data-id=\"4803773\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon-list.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-icon-list-items\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" id=\"Layer_1\" data-name=\"Layer 1\" viewBox=\"0 0 83 72\"><defs><style>      .cls-1 {        stroke-linecap: round;        stroke-linejoin: bevel;      }      .cls-1, .cls-2 {        fill: none;        stroke: #000;        stroke-width: 3px;      }      .cls-2 {        stroke-miterlimit: 10;      }    <\/style><\/defs><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"34.5\" cy=\"33.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"49.5\" cy=\"40.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"21\" y1=\"41\" x2=\"52\" y2=\"41\"><\/line><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"41\" y1=\"30\" x2=\"51.7\" y2=\"40.8\"><\/line><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>Over-Optimism<\/b>: Excessive confidence in technology readiness and minimal acknowledgment of risks or complexities.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" id=\"Layer_1\" data-name=\"Layer 1\" viewBox=\"0 0 83 72\"><defs><style>      .cls-1 {        stroke-linecap: round;        stroke-linejoin: bevel;      }      .cls-1, .cls-2 {        fill: none;        stroke: #000;        stroke-width: 3px;      }      .cls-2 {        stroke-miterlimit: 10;      }    <\/style><\/defs><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"34.5\" cy=\"33.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"49.5\" cy=\"40.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"21\" y1=\"41\" x2=\"52\" y2=\"41\"><\/line><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"41\" y1=\"30\" x2=\"51.7\" y2=\"40.8\"><\/line><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>Group Think<\/b>: Decisions made to maintain group harmony, suppressing dissent or creative problem-solving.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" id=\"Layer_1\" data-name=\"Layer 1\" viewBox=\"0 0 83 72\"><defs><style>      .cls-1 {        stroke-linecap: round;        stroke-linejoin: bevel;      }      .cls-1, .cls-2 {        fill: none;        stroke: #000;        stroke-width: 3px;      }      .cls-2 {        stroke-miterlimit: 10;      }    <\/style><\/defs><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"34.5\" cy=\"33.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"49.5\" cy=\"40.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"21\" y1=\"41\" x2=\"52\" y2=\"41\"><\/line><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"41\" y1=\"30\" x2=\"51.7\" y2=\"40.8\"><\/line><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>Dominating Personalities<\/b>: Forceful opinions overshadowing comprehensive analysis, suppressing diverse perspectives and reducing the overall quality of estimates.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" id=\"Layer_1\" data-name=\"Layer 1\" viewBox=\"0 0 83 72\"><defs><style>      .cls-1 {        stroke-linecap: round;        stroke-linejoin: bevel;      }      .cls-1, .cls-2 {        fill: none;        stroke: #000;        stroke-width: 3px;      }      .cls-2 {        stroke-miterlimit: 10;      }    <\/style><\/defs><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"34.5\" cy=\"33.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"49.5\" cy=\"40.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"21\" y1=\"41\" x2=\"52\" y2=\"41\"><\/line><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"41\" y1=\"30\" x2=\"51.7\" y2=\"40.8\"><\/line><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>Inexperience<\/b>: Limited familiarity with complex systems, historical data, or proven methodologies, leading to oversight and unrealistic expectations.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" id=\"Layer_1\" data-name=\"Layer 1\" viewBox=\"0 0 83 72\"><defs><style>      .cls-1 {        stroke-linecap: round;        stroke-linejoin: bevel;      }      .cls-1, .cls-2 {        fill: none;        stroke: #000;        stroke-width: 3px;      }      .cls-2 {        stroke-miterlimit: 10;      }    <\/style><\/defs><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"34.5\" cy=\"33.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"49.5\" cy=\"40.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"21\" y1=\"41\" x2=\"52\" y2=\"41\"><\/line><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"41\" y1=\"30\" x2=\"51.7\" y2=\"40.8\"><\/line><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>Pressure from Management<\/b>: Demands for success at any cost, distorting realistic forecasting by incentivizing optimistic rather than realistic estimations.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" id=\"Layer_1\" data-name=\"Layer 1\" viewBox=\"0 0 83 72\"><defs><style>      .cls-1 {        stroke-linecap: round;        stroke-linejoin: bevel;      }      .cls-1, .cls-2 {        fill: none;        stroke: #000;        stroke-width: 3px;      }      .cls-2 {        stroke-miterlimit: 10;      }    <\/style><\/defs><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"34.5\" cy=\"33.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"49.5\" cy=\"40.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"21\" y1=\"41\" x2=\"52\" y2=\"41\"><\/line><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"41\" y1=\"30\" x2=\"51.7\" y2=\"40.8\"><\/line><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>Data Bias<\/b>: Errors from incomplete, irrelevant, inaccurately interpreted, or selectively used data, contributing to inaccurate foundational assumptions.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7fd8aee elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"7fd8aee\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>As highlighted by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gao.gov\/assets\/gao-20-195g.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">GAO Cost Estimating Guide<\/a>, these biases collectively or independently have the potential to significantly skew early estimates, undermining reliability and credibility.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-50aa5c6 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"50aa5c6\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b490606 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-child\" data-id=\"b490606\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c8d75a5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"c8d75a5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNegative Impacts of Bias on Defense Programs\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-95a73dd elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"95a73dd\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe impacts of these biases are significant, with wide-ranging consequences for defense programs. For example, biases can manifest in:\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2c3786e elementor-align-left elementor-icon-list--layout-traditional elementor-list-item-link-full_width elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon-list\" data-id=\"2c3786e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon-list.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-icon-list-items\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" id=\"Layer_1\" data-name=\"Layer 1\" viewBox=\"0 0 83 72\"><defs><style>      .cls-1 {        stroke-linecap: round;        stroke-linejoin: bevel;      }      .cls-1, .cls-2 {        fill: none;        stroke: #000;        stroke-width: 3px;      }      .cls-2 {        stroke-miterlimit: 10;      }    <\/style><\/defs><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"34.5\" cy=\"33.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"49.5\" cy=\"40.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"21\" y1=\"41\" x2=\"52\" y2=\"41\"><\/line><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"41\" y1=\"30\" x2=\"51.7\" y2=\"40.8\"><\/line><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>Budget Overruns<\/b>: Optimistic estimates can lead to insufficient budgeting, causing programs to exceed their allocated funds and potentially trigger Nunn-McCurdy breaches.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" id=\"Layer_1\" data-name=\"Layer 1\" viewBox=\"0 0 83 72\"><defs><style>      .cls-1 {        stroke-linecap: round;        stroke-linejoin: bevel;      }      .cls-1, .cls-2 {        fill: none;        stroke: #000;        stroke-width: 3px;      }      .cls-2 {        stroke-miterlimit: 10;      }    <\/style><\/defs><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"34.5\" cy=\"33.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"49.5\" cy=\"40.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"21\" y1=\"41\" x2=\"52\" y2=\"41\"><\/line><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"41\" y1=\"30\" x2=\"51.7\" y2=\"40.8\"><\/line><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>Schedule Delays<\/b>: Failure to accurately account for technology readiness and risk can result in unforeseen delays, hindering timely delivery of critical capabilities.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" id=\"Layer_1\" data-name=\"Layer 1\" viewBox=\"0 0 83 72\"><defs><style>      .cls-1 {        stroke-linecap: round;        stroke-linejoin: bevel;      }      .cls-1, .cls-2 {        fill: none;        stroke: #000;        stroke-width: 3px;      }      .cls-2 {        stroke-miterlimit: 10;      }    <\/style><\/defs><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"34.5\" cy=\"33.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"49.5\" cy=\"40.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"21\" y1=\"41\" x2=\"52\" y2=\"41\"><\/line><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"41\" y1=\"30\" x2=\"51.7\" y2=\"40.8\"><\/line><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>Capability Shortfalls<\/b>: Overconfidence or group think can cause critical design and operational risks to be underestimated, resulting in delivered capabilities that fail to meet mission requirements.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" id=\"Layer_1\" data-name=\"Layer 1\" viewBox=\"0 0 83 72\"><defs><style>      .cls-1 {        stroke-linecap: round;        stroke-linejoin: bevel;      }      .cls-1, .cls-2 {        fill: none;        stroke: #000;        stroke-width: 3px;      }      .cls-2 {        stroke-miterlimit: 10;      }    <\/style><\/defs><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"34.5\" cy=\"33.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"49.5\" cy=\"40.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"21\" y1=\"41\" x2=\"52\" y2=\"41\"><\/line><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"41\" y1=\"30\" x2=\"51.7\" y2=\"40.8\"><\/line><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>Strategic Misalignment<\/b>: Bias-driven inaccuracies in cost estimation can distort resource allocation decisions, diverting attention and funding away from other potentially more impactful projects.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-29412c0 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"29412c0\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-69dec96 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-child\" data-id=\"69dec96\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0e887a9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0e887a9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Rigorous Processes for Mitigating Bias<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-48c1e21 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"48c1e21\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>All estimates contain bias. To overcome this, one must acknowledge the existence of bias to move beyond it and develop mitigation strategies to apply objective data-driven inputs. A first step in developing an objective balanced cost estimate is to gather and structure the estimate using proven processes. The figure below illustrates a bias evaluation process following point estimate development to determine a) if there is bias and b) where it might be present.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fe56864 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-child\" data-id=\"fe56864\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5686db2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"5686db2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Bias-flow-chart.png\" data-elementor-open-lightbox=\"yes\" data-elementor-lightbox-title=\"Bias-flow-chart\" data-e-action-hash=\"#elementor-action%3Aaction%3Dlightbox%26settings%3DeyJpZCI6NDQ2ODMsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOlwvXC93d3cuc3BhLmNvbVwvd3AtY29udGVudFwvdXBsb2Fkc1wvMjAyNVwvMDRcL0JpYXMtZmxvdy1jaGFydC5wbmcifQ%3D%3D\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"864\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Bias-flow-chart-864x1024.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-44683\" alt=\"From Overconfidence to Realism: Overcoming Bias in Early Cost Forecasting chart\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Bias-flow-chart-864x1024.png 864w, https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Bias-flow-chart-253x300.png 253w, https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Bias-flow-chart-768x910.png 768w, https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Bias-flow-chart-1296x1536.png 1296w, https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Bias-flow-chart.png 1687w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 864px) 100vw, 864px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">Bias evaluation process to determine if there is bias and where it might be present.<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1b6e51d e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"1b6e51d\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f2a4771 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-child\" data-id=\"f2a4771\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-42ac872 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"42ac872\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>At SPA, one of our central capabilities is<a href=\"\/capabilities\/acquisition-portfolio-and-program-management\/acquisition-portfolio-and-program-management-subcapabilities\/\"> Cost Research, Estimating, and Engineering<\/a>. Within this analytic discipline, we emphasize using a structured, methodical approach that integrates psychological insights with rigorous analytic methods. Our approach involves these steps:<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-bc6d29b elementor-align-left elementor-icon-list--layout-traditional elementor-list-item-link-full_width elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon-list\" data-id=\"bc6d29b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon-list.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-icon-list-items\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" id=\"Layer_1\" data-name=\"Layer 1\" viewBox=\"0 0 83 72\"><defs><style>      .cls-1 {        stroke-linecap: round;        stroke-linejoin: bevel;      }      .cls-1, .cls-2 {        fill: none;        stroke: #000;        stroke-width: 3px;      }      .cls-2 {        stroke-miterlimit: 10;      }    <\/style><\/defs><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"34.5\" cy=\"33.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"49.5\" cy=\"40.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"21\" y1=\"41\" x2=\"52\" y2=\"41\"><\/line><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"41\" y1=\"30\" x2=\"51.7\" y2=\"40.8\"><\/line><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>Critical Thinking and Pre-Mortems<\/b>: Encourage stakeholders to challenge assumptions by explicitly exploring scenarios in which the project fails. This process helps to proactively identify risks and develop mitigation strategies.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" id=\"Layer_1\" data-name=\"Layer 1\" viewBox=\"0 0 83 72\"><defs><style>      .cls-1 {        stroke-linecap: round;        stroke-linejoin: bevel;      }      .cls-1, .cls-2 {        fill: none;        stroke: #000;        stroke-width: 3px;      }      .cls-2 {        stroke-miterlimit: 10;      }    <\/style><\/defs><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"34.5\" cy=\"33.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"49.5\" cy=\"40.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"21\" y1=\"41\" x2=\"52\" y2=\"41\"><\/line><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"41\" y1=\"30\" x2=\"51.7\" y2=\"40.8\"><\/line><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>Structured Decision-Making<\/b>: Employ frameworks such as SWOT analyses or structured round-robin discussions to help ensure balanced and inclusive input by systematically engaging all participants.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" id=\"Layer_1\" data-name=\"Layer 1\" viewBox=\"0 0 83 72\"><defs><style>      .cls-1 {        stroke-linecap: round;        stroke-linejoin: bevel;      }      .cls-1, .cls-2 {        fill: none;        stroke: #000;        stroke-width: 3px;      }      .cls-2 {        stroke-miterlimit: 10;      }    <\/style><\/defs><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"34.5\" cy=\"33.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"49.5\" cy=\"40.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"21\" y1=\"41\" x2=\"52\" y2=\"41\"><\/line><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"41\" y1=\"30\" x2=\"51.7\" y2=\"40.8\"><\/line><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>Weight-of-Advice (WOA) and Judge-Advisor Systems (JAS)<\/b>: Incorporate structured processes that objectively evaluate stakeholder inputs based on expertise, credibility, and relevance. These methods help mitigate biases by assigning objective weights to various stakeholder contributions.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" id=\"Layer_1\" data-name=\"Layer 1\" viewBox=\"0 0 83 72\"><defs><style>      .cls-1 {        stroke-linecap: round;        stroke-linejoin: bevel;      }      .cls-1, .cls-2 {        fill: none;        stroke: #000;        stroke-width: 3px;      }      .cls-2 {        stroke-miterlimit: 10;      }    <\/style><\/defs><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"34.5\" cy=\"33.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"49.5\" cy=\"40.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"21\" y1=\"41\" x2=\"52\" y2=\"41\"><\/line><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"41\" y1=\"30\" x2=\"51.7\" y2=\"40.8\"><\/line><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>Quantitative Risk Assessment<\/b>: Enhance initial point estimates using probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo simulations, explicitly modeling uncertainties and providing a clearer picture of potential risks.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-29ad357 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"29ad357\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9feafd2 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-child\" data-id=\"9feafd2\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8f36e87 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"8f36e87\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tManaging Group Think and Dominating Personalities\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-357e184 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"357e184\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>To effectively manage biases like \u201cgroup think\u201d and dominating personalities, structured facilitation and deliberate engagement strategies like these are essential:<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9c73944 elementor-align-left elementor-icon-list--layout-traditional elementor-list-item-link-full_width elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon-list\" data-id=\"9c73944\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon-list.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-icon-list-items\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" id=\"Layer_1\" data-name=\"Layer 1\" viewBox=\"0 0 83 72\"><defs><style>      .cls-1 {        stroke-linecap: round;        stroke-linejoin: bevel;      }      .cls-1, .cls-2 {        fill: none;        stroke: #000;        stroke-width: 3px;      }      .cls-2 {        stroke-miterlimit: 10;      }    <\/style><\/defs><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"34.5\" cy=\"33.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"49.5\" cy=\"40.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"21\" y1=\"41\" x2=\"52\" y2=\"41\"><\/line><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"41\" y1=\"30\" x2=\"51.7\" y2=\"40.8\"><\/line><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>Structured Agendas<\/b>: Clearly defining meeting agendas with specific time allocations and targeted participation from all group members can ensure balanced inputs.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" id=\"Layer_1\" data-name=\"Layer 1\" viewBox=\"0 0 83 72\"><defs><style>      .cls-1 {        stroke-linecap: round;        stroke-linejoin: bevel;      }      .cls-1, .cls-2 {        fill: none;        stroke: #000;        stroke-width: 3px;      }      .cls-2 {        stroke-miterlimit: 10;      }    <\/style><\/defs><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"34.5\" cy=\"33.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"49.5\" cy=\"40.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"21\" y1=\"41\" x2=\"52\" y2=\"41\"><\/line><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"41\" y1=\"30\" x2=\"51.7\" y2=\"40.8\"><\/line><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>Round-Robin Discussion<\/b>: Utilizing round-robin methods ensures each participant has an equal opportunity to voice insights, reducing the impact of dominating personalities.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" id=\"Layer_1\" data-name=\"Layer 1\" viewBox=\"0 0 83 72\"><defs><style>      .cls-1 {        stroke-linecap: round;        stroke-linejoin: bevel;      }      .cls-1, .cls-2 {        fill: none;        stroke: #000;        stroke-width: 3px;      }      .cls-2 {        stroke-miterlimit: 10;      }    <\/style><\/defs><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"34.5\" cy=\"33.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"49.5\" cy=\"40.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"21\" y1=\"41\" x2=\"52\" y2=\"41\"><\/line><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"41\" y1=\"30\" x2=\"51.7\" y2=\"40.8\"><\/line><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>Mentorship and Pairing<\/b>: Pairing inexperienced participants with more experienced analysts encourages knowledge sharing and balanced input, reducing the dominance of any single individual or viewpoint.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" id=\"Layer_1\" data-name=\"Layer 1\" viewBox=\"0 0 83 72\"><defs><style>      .cls-1 {        stroke-linecap: round;        stroke-linejoin: bevel;      }      .cls-1, .cls-2 {        fill: none;        stroke: #000;        stroke-width: 3px;      }      .cls-2 {        stroke-miterlimit: 10;      }    <\/style><\/defs><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"34.5\" cy=\"33.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><circle class=\"cls-2\" cx=\"49.5\" cy=\"40.5\" r=\"28.5\"><\/circle><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"21\" y1=\"41\" x2=\"52\" y2=\"41\"><\/line><line class=\"cls-1\" x1=\"41\" y1=\"30\" x2=\"51.7\" y2=\"40.8\"><\/line><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>Anonymous Input<\/b>: Collecting input anonymously can help mitigate the effect of dominating personalities and reduce conformity pressures, encouraging more diverse and honest feedback.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e2f759b e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"e2f759b\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d77eea0 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-child\" data-id=\"d77eea0\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-18adca5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"18adca5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tPractical Examples of Bias Mitigation\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3794b7f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3794b7f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWe applied these strategies effectively during a recent cost estimation scenario for a new space mission. Initially, biases from dominating personalities and data ambiguity created significant obstacles. By restructuring meetings to include round-robin discussions, pairing inexperienced analysts with senior counterparts for mentorship, and encouraging critical review through pre-mortem exercises, we reached a balanced consensus on the project\u2019s cost inputs.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d724e1e elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"d724e1e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>We also implemented the <a href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s12144-022-03573-2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Weight-of-Advice<\/a> (WOA) method, enabling stakeholders to anonymously rate each participant\u2019s expertise, significantly reducing the influence of dominating personalities. This structured approach led to balanced discussions and produced high-quality cost inputs, grounded in objective data rather than individual biases.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c6fa0bf e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"c6fa0bf\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e69c52c e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-child\" data-id=\"e69c52c\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4730d4c elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"4730d4c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tContinuous Improvement and Future Research Directions\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9cacfc7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"9cacfc7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tBias mitigation is not a static task but an ongoing commitment to continuous improvement. At SPA, we advocate regular reviews of estimates, continuously updating assumptions and models as new information emerges. Identifying bias should become an integral part of routine program reviews, systematically revisiting assumptions and adjusting models accordingly.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7fda79c e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-child\" data-id=\"7fda79c\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-92f85a1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-video\" data-id=\"92f85a1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;youtube_url&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/youtu.be\\\/vnB7yX00Dc8&quot;,&quot;show_image_overlay&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;image_overlay&quot;:{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/www.spa.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/04\\\/SPA-Christina-Snyder-Fellow-ICEAA.png&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:44699,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;Christina Snyder, SPA Fellow for Cost Estimation and Analysis and ICEAA President&quot;,&quot;source&quot;:&quot;library&quot;},&quot;video_type&quot;:&quot;youtube&quot;,&quot;controls&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"video.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-wrapper elementor-open-inline\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-video\"><\/div>\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-custom-embed-image-overlay\" style=\"background-image: url(https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/SPA-Christina-Snyder-Fellow-ICEAA.png);\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-custom-embed-play\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Play Video about Christina Snyder, SPA Fellow for Cost Estimation and Analysis and ICEAA President\" tabindex=\"0\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"eicon-play\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-329e6c9 e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"329e6c9\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6a70e2e e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-child\" data-id=\"6a70e2e\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5017ac3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"5017ac3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tRecognizing and addressing biases early in program development is essential for accurate cost estimates, mission alignment, and preventing costly delays and overruns. Integrating behavioral insights with rigorous analytical methodologies helps defense organizations produce credible, realistic, and actionable forecasts. With dedicated processes and continual refinements, program leaders can enhance the precision and effectiveness of strategic resource allocations, thereby significantly improving mission outcomes.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9a29ed7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"9a29ed7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Learn more about SPA\u2019s capabilities in <a href=\"\/capabilities\/acquisition-portfolio-and-program-management\/acquisition-portfolio-and-program-management-subcapabilities\/\">Acquisition Portfolio and Program Management<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/SPA_Capabilities.pdf?utm_source=focus&amp;utm_medium=download\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">download our Core Capabilities brochure<\/a>.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3d8a80b e-con-full e-flex qodef-elementor-content-no e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"3d8a80b\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-68b7b4a elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"68b7b4a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h4 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Related Posts<\/h4>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c7b05f4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-leroux_core_blog_list\" data-id=\"c7b05f4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"leroux_core_blog_list.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-shortcode qodef-m  qodef-blog qodef--list qodef-item-layout--standard   qodef-grid qodef-layout--columns    qodef-col-num--3 qodef-item-layout--standard qodef-pagination--off qodef-responsive--predefined\" data-options=\"{&quot;plugin&quot;:&quot;leroux_core&quot;,&quot;module&quot;:&quot;blog\\\/shortcodes&quot;,&quot;shortcode&quot;:&quot;blog-list&quot;,&quot;post_type&quot;:&quot;post&quot;,&quot;next_page&quot;:&quot;2&quot;,&quot;max_pages_num&quot;:6,&quot;behavior&quot;:&quot;columns&quot;,&quot;images_proportion&quot;:&quot;full&quot;,&quot;columns&quot;:&quot;3&quot;,&quot;columns_responsive&quot;:&quot;predefined&quot;,&quot;posts_per_page&quot;:&quot;3&quot;,&quot;orderby&quot;:&quot;date&quot;,&quot;order&quot;:&quot;DESC&quot;,&quot;additional_params&quot;:&quot;tax&quot;,&quot;tax&quot;:&quot;category&quot;,&quot;tax_slug&quot;:&quot;capabilities&quot;,&quot;layout&quot;:&quot;standard&quot;,&quot;title_tag&quot;:&quot;h6&quot;,&quot;enable_filter&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;pagination_type&quot;:&quot;no-pagination&quot;,&quot;object_class_name&quot;:&quot;LerouxCore_Blog_List_Shortcode&quot;,&quot;taxonomy_filter&quot;:&quot;category&quot;,&quot;additional_query_args&quot;:{&quot;tax_query&quot;:[{&quot;taxonomy&quot;:&quot;category&quot;,&quot;field&quot;:&quot;slug&quot;,&quot;terms&quot;:&quot;capabilities&quot;}]}}\">\n\t\t<div class=\"qodef-grid-inner\">\n\t\t<article class=\"qodef-e qodef-blog-item qodef-grid-item qodef-item--full post-48890 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-capabilities category-blog category-national-security-infrastructure-protection category-software-cyber-cloud-computing tag-and-cloud-computing tag-cabaniss tag-chip-manufacturing tag-chip-war tag-cyber tag-defense-tech tag-national-security tag-semiconductors tag-software tag-spa tag-supply-chain-resilience tag-systems-planning-analysis tag-technology-policy\">\n\t<div class=\"qodef-e-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-media\">\n\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-media-image\">\n\t\t<a itemprop=\"url\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/focus-beyond-the-chip-why-national-security-depends-on-the-entire-semiconductor-ecosystem\/\">\n\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/FOCUS-SPA-Perspectives-Beyond-the-Chip-Why-National-Security-Depends-on-the-Entire-Semiconductor-Ecosystem.jpg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-post-image\" alt=\"FOCUS: SPA Perspectives Beyond the Chip: Why National Security Depends on the Entire Semiconductor Ecosystem blog\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/FOCUS-SPA-Perspectives-Beyond-the-Chip-Why-National-Security-Depends-on-the-Entire-Semiconductor-Ecosystem.jpg 2000w, https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/FOCUS-SPA-Perspectives-Beyond-the-Chip-Why-National-Security-Depends-on-the-Entire-Semiconductor-Ecosystem-300x120.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/FOCUS-SPA-Perspectives-Beyond-the-Chip-Why-National-Security-Depends-on-the-Entire-Semiconductor-Ecosystem-1024x410.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/FOCUS-SPA-Perspectives-Beyond-the-Chip-Why-National-Security-Depends-on-the-Entire-Semiconductor-Ecosystem-768x307.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/FOCUS-SPA-Perspectives-Beyond-the-Chip-Why-National-Security-Depends-on-the-Entire-Semiconductor-Ecosystem-1536x614.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\t<a itemprop=\"dateCreated\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/2025\/08\/\" class=\"entry-date qodef-list-date \">\n\t\t<div class=\"qodef-day\">\n\t\t\t13\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"qodef-month\">\n\t\t\tAug\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/a>\n\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-content\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-top-holder\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-info\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/category\/blog\/capabilities\/\" rel=\"tag\">Capabilities<\/a><span class=\"qodef-info-category-separator-single\"><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/category\/blog\/\" rel=\"tag\">Focus - SPA Perspectives<\/a><span class=\"qodef-info-category-separator-single\"><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/category\/blog\/capabilities\/national-security-infrastructure-protection\/\" rel=\"tag\">National Security and Infrastructure Protection<\/a><span class=\"qodef-info-category-separator-single\"><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/category\/blog\/capabilities\/software-cyber-cloud-computing\/\" rel=\"tag\">Software, Cyber, and Cloud Computing<\/a><div class=\"qodef-info-separator-end\"><\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-text\">\n\t\t\t\t<h6 itemprop=\"name\" class=\"qodef-e-title entry-title\" >\n\t<a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"qodef-e-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/focus-beyond-the-chip-why-national-security-depends-on-the-entire-semiconductor-ecosystem\/\">\n\t\tBeyond the Chip: Why National Security Depends on the Entire Semiconductor Ecosystem\t<\/a>\n<\/h6>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-bottom-holder\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-left\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-read-more\">\n\t\t<a class=\"qodef-shortcode qodef-m  qodef-button qodef-layout--filled   qodef-html--link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/focus-beyond-the-chip-why-national-security-depends-on-the-entire-semiconductor-ecosystem\/\" target=\"_self\"  >    <span class=\"qodef-m-text\">Read More<\/span>    <span class=\"qodef-m-arrow\"><svg class=\"qodef-svg--button-arrow\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10\" height=\"10\" viewBox=\"0 0 9.8 9.8\"><g><path d=\"m.4 9.4 9-9\"\/><path d=\"M.4.5h8.9\"\/><path d=\"M9.3 9.4V.5\"\/><\/g><g><path d=\"m.4 9.4 9-9\"\/><path d=\"M.4.5h8.9\"\/><path d=\"M9.3 9.4V.5\"\/><\/g><\/svg><\/span><\/a>\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-right qodef-e-info\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"qodef-e qodef-blog-item qodef-grid-item qodef-item--full post-48546 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-capabilities category-blog category-software-cyber-cloud-computing tag-blog tag-capabilities tag-cloud-computing tag-cyber tag-software tag-space-and-missile-defense tag-systems-engineering-meteyer tag-systems-planning-analysis tag-united-states-space-force\">\n\t<div class=\"qodef-e-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-media\">\n\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-media-image\">\n\t\t<a itemprop=\"url\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/focus-space-warfare-how-the-u-s-can-stay-ahead-in-the-orbital-arms-race\/\">\n\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/SPA-FOCUS-Space-Warfare-How-the-U.S.-Can-Stay-Ahead-in-the-Orbital-Arms-Race.jpg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-post-image\" alt=\"FOCUS: SPA Perspectives blog post: Space Warfare: How the U.S. Can Stay Ahead in the Orbital Arms Race\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/SPA-FOCUS-Space-Warfare-How-the-U.S.-Can-Stay-Ahead-in-the-Orbital-Arms-Race.jpg 2000w, https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/SPA-FOCUS-Space-Warfare-How-the-U.S.-Can-Stay-Ahead-in-the-Orbital-Arms-Race-300x120.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/SPA-FOCUS-Space-Warfare-How-the-U.S.-Can-Stay-Ahead-in-the-Orbital-Arms-Race-1024x410.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/SPA-FOCUS-Space-Warfare-How-the-U.S.-Can-Stay-Ahead-in-the-Orbital-Arms-Race-768x307.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/SPA-FOCUS-Space-Warfare-How-the-U.S.-Can-Stay-Ahead-in-the-Orbital-Arms-Race-1536x614.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\t<a itemprop=\"dateCreated\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/2025\/08\/\" class=\"entry-date qodef-list-date \">\n\t\t<div class=\"qodef-day\">\n\t\t\t06\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"qodef-month\">\n\t\t\tAug\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/a>\n\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-content\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-top-holder\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-info\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/category\/blog\/capabilities\/\" rel=\"tag\">Capabilities<\/a><span class=\"qodef-info-category-separator-single\"><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/category\/blog\/\" rel=\"tag\">Focus - SPA Perspectives<\/a><span class=\"qodef-info-category-separator-single\"><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/category\/blog\/capabilities\/software-cyber-cloud-computing\/\" rel=\"tag\">Software, Cyber, and Cloud Computing<\/a><div class=\"qodef-info-separator-end\"><\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-text\">\n\t\t\t\t<h6 itemprop=\"name\" class=\"qodef-e-title entry-title\" >\n\t<a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"qodef-e-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/focus-space-warfare-how-the-u-s-can-stay-ahead-in-the-orbital-arms-race\/\">\n\t\tSpace Warfare: How the U.S. Can Stay Ahead in the Orbital Arms Race\t<\/a>\n<\/h6>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-bottom-holder\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-left\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-read-more\">\n\t\t<a class=\"qodef-shortcode qodef-m  qodef-button qodef-layout--filled   qodef-html--link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/focus-space-warfare-how-the-u-s-can-stay-ahead-in-the-orbital-arms-race\/\" target=\"_self\"  >    <span class=\"qodef-m-text\">Read More<\/span>    <span class=\"qodef-m-arrow\"><svg class=\"qodef-svg--button-arrow\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10\" height=\"10\" viewBox=\"0 0 9.8 9.8\"><g><path d=\"m.4 9.4 9-9\"\/><path d=\"M.4.5h8.9\"\/><path d=\"M9.3 9.4V.5\"\/><\/g><g><path d=\"m.4 9.4 9-9\"\/><path d=\"M.4.5h8.9\"\/><path d=\"M9.3 9.4V.5\"\/><\/g><\/svg><\/span><\/a>\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-right qodef-e-info\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"qodef-e qodef-blog-item qodef-grid-item qodef-item--full post-48081 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-capabilities category-blog category-systems-engineering-integration tag-blog tag-capabilities tag-space-and-missile-defense tag-systems-engineering-meteyer tag-systems-planning-analysis tag-united-states-space-force\">\n\t<div class=\"qodef-e-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-media\">\n\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-media-image\">\n\t\t<a itemprop=\"url\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/focus-operating-in-a-contested-orbit-why-culture-and-doctrine-are-key-elements-of-space-superiority\/\">\n\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Operating-in-a-Contested-Orbit-Why-Culture-and-Doctrine-Are-Key-Elements-of-Space-Superiority.jpg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Operating-in-a-Contested-Orbit-Why-Culture-and-Doctrine-Are-Key-Elements-of-Space-Superiority.jpg 2000w, https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Operating-in-a-Contested-Orbit-Why-Culture-and-Doctrine-Are-Key-Elements-of-Space-Superiority-300x120.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Operating-in-a-Contested-Orbit-Why-Culture-and-Doctrine-Are-Key-Elements-of-Space-Superiority-1024x410.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Operating-in-a-Contested-Orbit-Why-Culture-and-Doctrine-Are-Key-Elements-of-Space-Superiority-768x307.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.spa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Operating-in-a-Contested-Orbit-Why-Culture-and-Doctrine-Are-Key-Elements-of-Space-Superiority-1536x614.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\t<a itemprop=\"dateCreated\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/2025\/07\/\" class=\"entry-date qodef-list-date \">\n\t\t<div class=\"qodef-day\">\n\t\t\t30\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"qodef-month\">\n\t\t\tJul\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/a>\n\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-content\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-top-holder\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-info\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/category\/blog\/capabilities\/\" rel=\"tag\">Capabilities<\/a><span class=\"qodef-info-category-separator-single\"><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/category\/blog\/\" rel=\"tag\">Focus - SPA Perspectives<\/a><span class=\"qodef-info-category-separator-single\"><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/category\/blog\/capabilities\/systems-engineering-integration\/\" rel=\"tag\">Systems Engineering and Integration\u200b<\/a><div class=\"qodef-info-separator-end\"><\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-text\">\n\t\t\t\t<h6 itemprop=\"name\" class=\"qodef-e-title entry-title\" >\n\t<a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"qodef-e-title-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.com\/focus-operating-in-a-contested-orbit-why-culture-and-doctrine-are-key-elements-of-space-superiority\/\">\n\t\tOperating in a Contested Orbit: Why Culture and Doctrine Are Key Elements of Space Superiority\t<\/a>\n<\/h6>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-bottom-holder\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-left\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"qodef-e-read-more\">\n\t\t<a class=\"qodef-shortcode qodef-m  qodef-button qodef-layout--filled   qodef-html--link\" 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